ENA May 9/2020 WHO study warned that between 29 million and 44 million people in the WHO African region could get infected by COVID-19 in the first year of the pandemic and between 83,000 and 190,000 could die in the same period.

The estimates were based on prediction modeling, and focus on 47 countries in the WHO African region with a combined population of one billion ― Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Morocco, Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia and Djibouti are not included.

Cases have been recorded in every African nation except Lesotho.

The new research also predicted a prolonged outbreak over a few years.

“It likely will smolder in transmission hot spots,” BBC quoted WHO Africa head Matshidiso Moeti as saying.

This patchier and slower pattern of transmission sets Africa apart from other regions.

Other factors taken into account are the region’s younger populations who have “benefitted from the control of communicable diseases such as HIV and tuberculosis”, as well as lower mortality rates.

The WHO’s warning comes as Africa’s most populous nation, Nigeria, plus others including South Africa and Ivory Coast, have begun relaxing some of their lockdown measures.

South Africa has the highest number of confirmed cases ― more than 8,200 and 160 deaths ― while Algeria has the most deaths, 483.

“COVID-19 could become a fixture in our lives for the next several years unless a proactive approach is taken by many governments in the region,” Dr. Moeti said in a WHO statement.

“We need to test, trace, isolate and treat.”